Another extreme drought would drive near-total crop losses worse than the Dust Bowl, kneecapping the broader economy. The Great Climate Migration by Abrahm Lustgarten for ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine. I live on a hilltop, 400 feet above sea level, and my home will never be touched by rising waters. Like the subjects of my reporting, climate change had found me, its indiscriminate forces erasing all semblance of normalcy. Millions took up the invitation, replacing hardy prairie grass with thirsty crops like corn, wheat and cotton. Keenan calls the practice of drawing arbitrary lending boundaries around areas of perceived environmental risk “bluelining,” and indeed many of the neighborhoods that banks are bluelining are the same as the ones that were hit by the racist redlining practice in days past. The evidence points to a second Great Migration north, particularly towards the largest cities of the American Northwest and Northeast—only this time for reasons based on climate … This article, the second in a series on global migration caused by climate change, is a result of a partnership between ProPublica and The New York … Thick smoke produced fits of coughing. At least 30 states, including Louisiana, Massachusetts, North Carolina and Texas, have developed so-called FAIR plans, and today they serve as a market backstop in the places facing the highest risks of climate-driven disasters, including coastal flooding, hurricanes and wildfires. The cost of resisting the new climate reality is mounting. projects.propublica.org New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States According to new data analyzed by ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine, warming temperatures, rising seas and changing rainfall will profoundly reshape the way people have lived in North America for centuries. It happened that way in the foreclosure crisis. Another direct hurricane risked bankrupting the state. ... Propublica logo ProPublica. This article, the second in a series on global migration caused by climate change, is a result of a partnership between ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine, with support from the Pulitzer Center. According to new data analyzed by ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine, warming temperatures, rising seas and changing rainfall will profoundly reshape the way people have lived in North America for centuries. Life has become increasingly untenable in the hardest-hit areas, but if the people there move, where will everyone go? Relocation no longer seemed like such a distant prospect. So insurers had rated it as “basically zero risk,” according to Kevin Van Leer, then a risk modeler from the global insurance liability firm Risk Management Solutions. What might change? I awoke to learn that more than 1,800 buildings were reduced to ashes, less than 35 miles from where I slept. Those who stay behind are disproportionately poor and elderly. The freeway to San Francisco will need to be raised, and to the east, a new bridge will be required to connect the community of Point Richmond to the city of Berkeley. While the first article in the series focused on the movement of climate refugees across international borders, the latest story focuses on how climate migration within the … It can be difficult to see the challenges clearly because so many factors are in play. You can’t state or imply that donations to your organization support ProPublica’s work. Until now, the market mechanisms had essentially socialized the consequences of high-risk development. Americans Are Still Moving There. My sense was that of all the devastating consequences of a warming planet — changing landscapes, pandemics, mass extinctions — the potential movement of hundreds of millions of climate refugees across the planet stands to be among the most important. The regulations — called Fair Access to Insurance Requirements — are justified by developers and local politicians alike as economic lifeboats “of last resort” in regions where climate change threatens to interrupt economic growth. For two years, I have been studying how climate change will influence global migration. The wave begins when individual perception of risk starts to shift, when the environmental threat reaches past the least fortunate and rattles the physical and financial security of broader, wealthier parts of the population. If you use canonical metadata, please use the ProPublica URL. Phoenix, meanwhile, endured 53 days of 110-degree heat — 20 more days than the previous record. Coastal high points will be cut off from roadways, amenities and escape routes, and even far inland, saltwater will seep into underground drinking-water supplies. I traveled across four countries to witness how rising temperatures were driving climate refugees away from some of the poorest and hottest parts of the world. Creative Commons License (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). A few people asked me about the accuracy of a recent NY Times Magazine / NY Times Daily Podcast story “How Climate Migration Will Reshape America”. It’s okay to put our stories on pages with ads, but not ads specifically sold against our stories. For more information about canonical metadata, You can’t edit our material, except to reflect relative changes in time, location and editorial style. “It’s hard to forecast something you’ve never seen before,” he said. The Memphis Sands Aquifer, a crucial water supply for Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas and Louisiana, is already overdrawn by hundreds of millions of gallons a day. Rural areas along the coast without a strong tax base? Any website our stories appear on must include a prominent and effective way to contact you. The Latino, Asian and Black communities who live in the most-vulnerable low-lying districts will be displaced first, but research from Mathew Hauer, a sociologist at Florida State University who published some of the first modeling of American climate migration in the journal Nature Climate Change in 2017, suggests that the toll will eventually be far more widespread: Nearly 1 in 3 people here in Marin County will leave, part of the roughly 700,000 who his models suggest may abandon the broader Bay Area as a result of sea-level rise alone. Coffey Park is surrounded not by vegetation but by concrete and malls and freeways. It’s an early sign, he told me, that the momentum is about to switch directions. profoundly interrupt the way we live and farm in the United States. As California burned, Hurricane Laura pounded the Louisiana coast with 150-mile-an-hour winds, killing at least 25 people; it was the 12th named storm to form by that point in 2020, another record. In fact, the correction — a newfound respect for the destructive power of nature, coupled with a sudden disavowal of Americans’ appetite for reckless development — had begun two years earlier, when a frightening surge in disasters offered a jolting preview of how the climate crisis was changing the rules. I mentioned this on the phone and then asked Keenan, “Should I be selling my house and getting — ”. In an era of climate change, though, such policies amount to a sort of shell game, meant to keep growth going even when other obvious signs and scientific research suggest that it should stop. This article, the first in a series on global climate migration, is a partnership between ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine, with support from the Pulitzer Center. It’s only a matter of time before homeowners begin to recognize the unsustainability of this approach. But I also had a longer-term question, about what would happen once this unprecedented fire season ended. Then, entirely predictably, came the drought. Get our investigations delivered to your inbox with the Big Story newsletter. You can’t sell our material separately or syndicate it. That questions of livability had reached me, here, were testament to Keenan’s belief that the bluelining phenomenon will eventually affect large majorities of equity-holding middle-class Americans too, with broad implications for the overall economy, starting in the nation’s largest state. Market shock, when driven by the sort of cultural awakening to risk that Keenan observes, can strike a neighborhood like an infectious disease, with fear spreading doubt — and devaluation — from door to door. Rising seas and increasingly violent hurricanes are making thousands of miles of American shoreline nearly uninhabitable. This article, the second in a series on global climate migration, is a partnership between ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine, with support from the Pulitzer Center. Half of Americans now rank climate as a top political priority, up from roughly one-third in 2016, and 3 out of 4 now describe climate change as either “a crisis” or “a major problem.” This year, Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa, where tens of thousands of acres of farmland flooded in 2019, ranked climate second only to health care as an issue. Was it finally time to leave for good? How Climate Migration Will Reshape America Thursday, September 24, 2020. Where money and technology fail, though, it inevitably falls to government policies — and government subsidies — to pick up the slack. Census data shows us how Americans move: toward heat, toward coastlines, toward drought, regardless of evidence of increasing storms and flooding and other disasters. ProPublica. Three of the largest fires in history burned simultaneously in a ring around the San Francisco Bay Area. From Santa Cruz to Lake Tahoe, thousands of bolts of electricity exploded down onto withered grasslands and forests, some of them already hollowed out by climate-driven infestations of beetles and kiln-dried by the worst five-year drought on record. Add to that the people contending with wildfires and other risks, and the number of Americans who might move — though difficult to predict precisely — could easily be tens of millions larger. The … “And once this flips,” he added, “it’s likely to flip very quickly.”. Across the country, it’s going to get hot. You are are free to republish it so long as you do the following: Copy and paste the following into your page to republish: the potential movement of hundreds of millions, raising the shorelines of the Great Lakes, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences last spring, New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States, University of Chicago and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Inside the Capitol Riot: What the Parler Videos Reveal, Why We Published More Than 500 Videos Taken by Parler Users of the Capitol Riot, “No One Took Us Seriously”: Black Cops Warned About Racist Capitol Police Officers for Years, Inside Trump and Barr’s Last-Minute Killing Spree, What Parler Saw During the Attack on the Capitol, Memphis-Area Residents Without Internet Must Wait Days for Vaccination Appointments, While Others Go to the Front of the Line. Great domestic relocation might be in the way north through Oklahoma and Kansas and into Nebraska you republished. 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